Opposition bloc leads with about 57 seats, Netanyahu bloc with 51, and Arab parties with 12

The chamber

The Knesset has 120 seats — one per member, and one "mandate" in Israeli coverage — and 61 of them is a majority. One dot per seat here, seated bloc by bloc with unaffiliated lists in the centre. The ring marks where each party's wedge begins and ends.

A dot fades as its seat becomes less certain. Solid dots are safe; the pale ones at each wing's edge are the seats still in play.

Every seat number on this page — each list, each bloc, and any coalition you build below — is read off one table of 120 seats. A list takes its median across the simulations; a list whose median falls below the 4 seats the threshold allows takes none; and the seats that leaves over go to the largest lists, one each, until the chamber is full. Add up any set of lists and you get the figure printed beside them.

That table rounds the run's central figures into whole seats that fill the chamber exactly. It is not an average of the simulations and not any single simulated election, and on its own it carries no uncertainty. The ranges in the table below, and the count of simulations beside each list, are where the uncertainty is reported.

How each bloc gets there

One bar per bloc on a shared scale, segmented by the parties that supply the seats. The number at the end of a bar is its segments added together, and the 61 rule is the same dashed line in every bar.

Build a coalition

Tick any set of lists. The seats are those lists' figures added together; the interval and the chance of a majority are counted over this run's own simulations, where the lists move together and no sum of the figures can stand in for them.

Reaching 61 seats is not the same as that government forming. A bloc counts the lists that endorsed a candidate for prime minister; it is not a coalition agreement. In April 2019, 65 MKs recommended Netanyahu and no government formed: Yisrael Beiteinu had recommended him and still would not sit with the Haredi parties over the conscription bill, which left him on 60. The Knesset then dissolved itself rather than pass the mandate on. Coalition bargaining, party vetoes and leader choices are not modelled here.

Every list

Every list the model carries: its seats, the range it lands in when it takes seats, and in how many simulations it takes any at all. The darker bar in each distribution is the figure in the Seats column — the run's one seat table, not the distribution's own peak, which can sit a bar away.

The marks are the lists' own, from Wikimedia Commons and the lists' sites.

How the polls have moved

Since 3 January 2025 the Netanyahu bloc's polling average has moved across about 6 seats. The polls the model is reading today put that same bloc anywhere between 47 and 64 — a 17-seat disagreement, wider than anything the campaign has done to the average. The figures beside each bloc below give both numbers, for all three blocs.

Each ribbon is one bloc, from the first poll taken for this election to polling day. The line is the model's own average of the polls, worked out again at every date from the polls published by then, so any point on it is a figure that could have been published that day. The Knesset dissolved on 17 July 2026, and that is where the campaign begins on this chart. Everything to the left of that mark is polling about a contest nobody had called yet.

These are polls, not the forecast. The seat numbers at the top of this page come out of the simulation, which takes this average and applies the electoral threshold and the seat allocation to it, so the two do not match seat for seat.

Every list, over the same months

The same ribbon for each list the polls have ever given a seat to. Every cell runs from 0 to 40 seats, so that a list with 25 seats and a list with 4 are not drawn as though they were the same size. The figures beside each name are the range of the polls the model is reading.

The dotted line is 4 seats: what a list that only just clears the threshold is entitled to, and the fewest this site will print. A list whose band sits on that line is one the polls do not settle — it is in the next Knesset in some of them and out of it in others, and its seats go to the lists that cleared.

What the forecast is made of

42 of the 529 polls on file count towards this forecast. The rest are past the window, or are exit polls and non-standard ballots that never count at any cutoff.

Those that do count do not count equally: a poll's weight halves every 10 days, so the corpus is an archive and half of this forecast sits in the 14 most recent polls, fielded since 9 September 2026.

The electoral threshold

A list needs 3.25% of the valid vote to take part in the seat allocation at all. Below that line it wins nothing, however many votes it holds. Above it, the 120 seats are divided under the Bader–Ofer method — the d'Hondt rule — among the qualifying lists alone, and only their votes are counted in the division. A list on the line holds 3.25% of the valid vote. If every vote were in the division that would be 3.9 of the 120 seats; the votes cast for the lists that missed are not, so it is worth more than that.

The votes cast for a list that misses the line elect nobody, and no other list receives them. Nothing is transferred and nothing is shared out: they are simply left out of the count, and the same 120 seats are then divided among fewer votes. That is why the lists that did clear end up with more seats between them than their share of every vote cast would give.

Each dot is one list in one election, at the share of the vote it took and the seats it won. Below the line a list takes nothing, however many votes it holds; above it, in each of the 6 elections held under this threshold, at least 4. None of those elections produced a count in between. The narrowest crossing on the record makes it concrete, and both lists in it are from one election, April 2019: New Right took 138,598 votes and none of the 120 seats; Ra'am-Balad took 143,666 — 5,068 more — and took 4 seats.