Current forecast
Illustration · generated with AI, not photographed
Method
Four pairs of lists have signed surplus-vote agreements, and from today the forecast counts them, handing out seats the way the law does. The page has 56 seats for the opposition bloc, 52 for the Netanyahu bloc and 12 for the Arab parties. Unity, which did not file, is gone.
Method
Five polls came out on 9 September, the day after candidate lists closed. The page is back to calling the blocs close, with 55 seats for the opposition bloc, 53 for the Netanyahu bloc and 12 for the Arab parties, and nearly all of the change is one small list getting its four seats back.
Method
Candidate lists closed on 8 September with 38 filed. Every poll this model reads was taken before that, and 14 of the 15 lists it names are on the ballot. The table has 57 for the opposition bloc, 51 for the Netanyahu bloc and 12 for the Arab parties — six seats apart on a run where the simulations did not move at all.
Method
Three polls arrived in two days, and one of them seated the Reservists — a list this page reported on Sunday as having left the ballot. It is back with a new partner, and both sources now count it outside every bloc. The printed table is level at 54 and 54, with 12 for the Arab parties.
Method
Unity withdrew on 4 September and the Reservists merged with the New Economic Party on 6 September. No poll has been fielded since either, so all 18 polls the forecast reads still ask about both. One new poll moved the printed table to 53 for the Netanyahu bloc, 55 for the opposition and 12 for the Arab parties.
Method
Three polls fielded on 3 September leave the two largest blocs level at 54 seats each and the Arab parties with 12, and the headline no longer says either bloc leads. Two dating errors came out with them: one of ours, counted twice since January, and one the compilation is making this week.