Method
Four pairs of lists have signed surplus-vote agreements, and from today the forecast counts them, handing out seats the way the law does. The page has 56 seats for the opposition bloc, 52 for the Netanyahu bloc and 12 for the Arab parties. Unity, which did not file, is gone.
Method
Five polls came out on 9 September, the day after candidate lists closed. The page is back to calling the blocs close, with 55 seats for the opposition bloc, 53 for the Netanyahu bloc and 12 for the Arab parties, and nearly all of the change is one small list getting its four seats back.
Method
Candidate lists closed on 8 September with 38 filed. Every poll this model reads was taken before that, and 14 of the 15 lists it names are on the ballot. The table has 57 for the opposition bloc, 51 for the Netanyahu bloc and 12 for the Arab parties — six seats apart on a run where the simulations did not move at all.
Method
Three polls arrived in two days, and one of them seated the Reservists — a list this page reported on Sunday as having left the ballot. It is back with a new partner, and both sources now count it outside every bloc. The printed table is level at 54 and 54, with 12 for the Arab parties.
Method
Unity withdrew on 4 September and the Reservists merged with the New Economic Party on 6 September. No poll has been fielded since either, so all 18 polls the forecast reads still ask about both. One new poll moved the printed table to 53 for the Netanyahu bloc, 55 for the opposition and 12 for the Arab parties.
Method
Three polls fielded on 3 September leave the two largest blocs level at 54 seats each and the Arab parties with 12, and the headline no longer says either bloc leads. Two dating errors came out with them: one of ours, counted twice since January, and one the compilation is making this week.
Method
Five polls fielded between 30 August and 2 September all seat Religious Zionism, now running with Zehut. Its chance of 4 seats went from 33% to 50%, the printed table from 57, 51 and 12 to 55, 53 and 12, and the opposition is the larger bloc in 58% of simulations, from 70%.
Method
This morning the headline said the Netanyahu bloc led with 55 seats. Of the 69 polls behind it, 52 had the opposition ahead. The data was right and the arithmetic was not, and three things changed today — one of them the number of polls the forecast is built from.
Method
One Midgam poll took Amcha Israel's chance of 4 seats from 49.7% to 50.8%, and Zionist Home's chance of nothing from 49.3% to 50.5%. Two medians crossed, the printed table went from 52, 57 and 11 to 55, 54 and 11 — and the simulated bloc medians did not move.
Method
Ofer Winter's list takes a median of 3 seats — one short of what the threshold allows, so the chamber shows it nothing — while filing it inside the Netanyahu bloc rather than outside moves that bloc's chance of reaching 61 from 2.0% to 7.9%.
Method
Four days ago this page said it would fold Balad in only when a source published the reunified list under a name of its own. That happened, the rule fired by itself, and the thing that stopped it firing seven months early was machinery built for something else entirely.
Note
Hadash, Ta'al and Balad re-formed on 19 August. Two of the three polls in the field that night reported the merged list; the corpus files what they found under Hadash-Ta'al, and will not fold Balad into it until a source publishes the new list as a list of its own.
Method
We thought we had nearly doubled the 2026 poll count. A third of the growth turned out to be the same polls twice. Here is what the real ones moved, and how the duplicates were caught.
Analysis
Read as two blocs, this map has no majority in it. Almost nobody reads it as two — and counted the way most Israeli analysis counts it, the anti-Netanyahu side clears 61 in nine simulations out of ten.
Method
Every poll we can read reports seats, not percentages. Converting one to the other would look like more precision and deliver less.