Method
A seat by two thousandths
The page still says the Netanyahu bloc is slightly ahead, now with about 52 seats, the opposition bloc with 51 and the Arab parties with 13, from 53, 51 and 12. One poll of 14 and 15 October moved the bloc averages by less than a fifth of a seat, and the seat went to the Arab parties in the rounding, by about two thousandths of a seat.
The top of the forecast page now reads Netanyahu bloc is slightly ahead with about 52 seats, Opposition bloc with 51, and Arab parties with 13. On 14 and 15 October it read 53, 51 and 12. The other 4 seats are still in the table under The Reservists-New Economic Party, a list in neither bloc.
The word is the same. The Netanyahu bloc comes out the larger of the two in 63.1% of simulations, counting a tie as half to each, from 64.7%. “Slightly ahead” runs from 60% to 75%.
One poll
One poll is new since 15 October:
- Zman Yisrael (Yossi Tatika), 14 and 15 October: 49 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, 54 for the opposition and 13 for the Arab parties, plus 4 for The Reservists-New Economic Party
It carries 5.1% of the weight in today’s average, and the window now holds 75 polls, from 74.
The seat
In the simulations the Netanyahu bloc’s average fell by about a sixth of a seat and the opposition bloc’s rose by about a tenth. The Arab parties’ average did not move.
The table shares the 120 seats in proportion: each bloc by the seats it is expected to win, and The Reservists-New Economic Party by its size when it is in, 4. Whole seats come to 117, and the 3 left over go to the largest remainders. The Reservists’ and the opposition bloc’s took two of them. The third lay between the Arab parties and the Netanyahu bloc, whose remainders differ by about two thousandths of a seat. On 15 October the Netanyahu bloc’s remainder was larger by more than a tenth.
A gap that small is inside the simulations’ own noise. Resampled at random, today’s simulations give the seat to the Arab parties 55 times in 100 and to the Netanyahu bloc 45 times. In the table it moves from United Torah Judaism, now with 7, to the Joint List, now with 8.
The rest
Neither bloc is near a majority. The Netanyahu bloc reaches 61 seats in 1.8% of simulations, from 2.1%, and the opposition in 0.7%, from 0.8%. The opposition bloc and the Arab parties reach 61 between them in 82.7%, from 81.7%. That is arithmetic about seats and nothing more: those seats belong to lists that do not act as one, and no coalition is modelled here.
The Reservists-New Economic Party won 4 seats in the new poll. Its chance of winning seats rose from 51 in 100 to 53, so the table keeps its 4 seats.
Amcha Israel fell below the threshold in the new poll, at 2.8%. Its chance of winning seats is still 56 in 100, so the table keeps its 4 seats, in the Netanyahu bloc.
The table has Yashar with 22 seats and Likud with 21. In the simulations Yashar wins more seats in 47.2%, Likud in 41.6%, and they tie in 11.1%.