Method
The Reservists leave the table
The page still says the Netanyahu bloc is slightly ahead, now with about 54 seats, the opposition bloc with 52 and the Arab parties with 14, from 52, 51 and 13. Eight polls of 19 to 21 October took The Reservists-New Economic Party under the half at which the table gives a list seats, and its 4 seats are now shared among the three blocs.
The top of the forecast page now reads Netanyahu bloc is slightly ahead with about 54 seats, Opposition bloc with 52, and Arab parties with 14. Since 20 October it had read 52, 51 and 13, with the other 4 seats under The Reservists-New Economic Party, a list in neither bloc. Today the three blocs hold all 120.
The word is the same. The Netanyahu bloc comes out the larger of the two in 62.7% of simulations, counting a tie as half to each, from 64.9%. “Slightly ahead” runs from 60% to 75%. Here and below, the earlier figure is from the corrected run of 20 October, described in a note at the top of that day’s post; the post itself said 65.5%.
Eight polls
Eight polls are new since the update of 20 October, in the order they were fielded:
- Channel 12 (Midgam), 19 October: 51 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, 55 for the opposition and 14 for the Arab parties
- Channel 13 (HaMadad), 19 October: 50, 51 and 15, plus 4 for The Reservists-New Economic Party
- Channel 14 (Next Data), 19 October: 62, 45 and 13
- Walla (Lazar), 19 October: 48, 54 and 14, plus 4 for The Reservists-New Economic Party
- Channel 14 (Next Data), 20 October: 62, 44 and 14
- i24NEWS (Direct Polls), 20 October: 58, 48 and 14
- Channel 12 (Midgam), 21 October: 51, 55 and 14
- Channel 13 (HaMadad), 21 October: 49, 52 and 15, plus 4 for The Reservists-New Economic Party
Together they carry 29.6% of the weight in today’s average; Channel 14’s count at half the weight of any other poll the same age. There are now 91 polls in the window, from 83, and none has aged out.
One poll published since is not yet in either source the forecast reads: Channel 14’s of 21 October.
The Reservists-New Economic Party
Three of the eight polls give the list 4 seats: Walla’s and both of Channel 13’s. The other five put it under the threshold. It now wins seats in 49 simulations in 100, from 53, and the table seats a list only when it wins seats in at least half of them. Resampled at random, today’s simulations put it under that line every time, 400 times in 400, and give the three blocs the same 54, 52 and 14 every time.
So the table now shares all 120 seats among the three blocs, each in proportion to the seats it is expected to win. Whole seats come to 119 — 54, 52 and 13 — and the one left over goes to the Arab parties, whose remainder is the largest. Against 20 October’s table, the Netanyahu bloc gains 2 seats (Likud and Shas), the opposition 1 (Yashar) and the Arab parties 1 (the Joint List). On 20 October’s averages the last seat would have gone to the opposition; the Arab parties’ rise in the new polls takes it.
In the table the gap between the two large blocs widens from one seat to two, though in the simulations it narrowed: the Netanyahu bloc’s average fell by about a fifth of a seat and the opposition’s rose by about an eighth. The Arab parties’ rose by about a third. The difference is rounding. On 20 October averages nearly two seats apart printed as one; today averages about a seat and a half apart print as two.
Channel 13’s poll of 21 October
The 2026 compilation entered this poll from Channel 13’s broadcast, which gave no fieldwork dates. The forecast was giving every undated poll from one firm and outlet the same identity, so it took this one for Channel 13’s poll of 14 October and kept only that. That is fixed, and nothing else in the polls on file changed. Without this poll the blocs would have the same 54, 52 and 14 seats, and the Netanyahu bloc would come out the larger in about 65% of simulations: most of today’s fall in that figure is this one poll.
The rest
Neither bloc is near a majority. The Netanyahu bloc reaches 61 seats in 0.8% of simulations, from 1.3%, and the opposition in 0.4%, from 0.5%. The opposition bloc and the Arab parties reach 61 between them in 87.5%, from 83.4%. That is arithmetic about seats and nothing more: those seats belong to lists that do not act as one, and no coalition is modelled here.
Amcha Israel wins seats in 40 simulations in 100, from 46, so the table still gives it none, and its seats stay in the Netanyahu bloc. Two of the eight polls give it 4: Channel 13’s of 19 October and Channel 12’s of 21 October.
The table has Likud and Yashar with 23 seats each. In the simulations Yashar wins more seats in 43.9%, Likud in 43.1%, and they tie in 13.1%.