Method
Slightly ahead again
The page again says the Netanyahu bloc is slightly ahead, with about 54 seats, the opposition bloc with 53 and the Arab parties with 13, the seats it has shown since 6 October. Six polls fielded on 7 and 8 October took the Netanyahu bloc's chance of coming out the larger from 58.6% to 62.8%, back over the 60% line.
The top of the forecast page now reads Netanyahu bloc is slightly ahead with about 54 seats, Opposition bloc with 53, and Arab parties with 13. Since 6 October it had read Netanyahu bloc and Opposition bloc are close, at about 54 and 53 seats, and Arab parties with 13.
The seats are the same. What changed is the figure the word is read from: the share of simulated elections in which each bloc comes out the larger of the two, counting a tie as half to each. Below 60% the page says “close”, and from 60% it says “slightly ahead”. The post of 5 October explains the scale.
That figure has now crossed 60% three times in seven days: up on 5 October, down on 6 October and up again today. Since 3 October it has stayed between 58.6% and 62.8%. When a figure sits that close to the line, the word can change with every round of polls, while the seats in the table have moved by no more than one per bloc over the same week.
Six polls
Six polls are new since 8 October, all fielded on 7 or 8 October:
- i24NEWS (Direct Polls): 60 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, 48 for the opposition and 12 for the Arab parties
- Channel 14 (Filber): 63, 45 and 12
- Channel 13 (HaMadad): 55, 50 and 15
- Maariv (Lazar): 52, 52 and 12, plus 4 for The Reservists-New Economic Party, which is in neither bloc
- Israel Hayom (Kantar): 51, 51 and 13, plus 5 for The Reservists-New Economic Party
- Zman Yisrael (Tatika): 51, 55 and 14
Three put the Netanyahu bloc ahead, two have the two blocs level, and one puts the opposition ahead. Each carries about 5% of the weight in today’s average, except Channel 14’s, which counts at half weight; the six together carry 27.8%.
Added at the date of the previous forecast, 8 October, they take the Netanyahu bloc’s figure from 58.6% to 62.4%. Three more days take it to 62.8%.
Today the Netanyahu bloc is the larger in 59.7% of simulations, the opposition bloc in 34.1%, and the two tie in 6.2%.
The seats
The table has 54 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, 53 for the opposition and 13 for the Arab parties, as on 8 October. Inside the Netanyahu bloc, a seat moves from Likud, now with 21, to United Torah Judaism, now with 8.
Neither bloc is near a majority. The Netanyahu bloc reaches 61 seats in 3.1% of simulations, from 3.0%, and the opposition in 1.4%, from 1.8%. The opposition bloc and the Arab parties reach 61 between them in 84.9%, from 85.2%. That is arithmetic about seats and nothing more: those seats belong to lists that do not act as one, and no coalition is modelled here.
The rest
Amcha Israel won seats in four of the six polls and fell below the threshold in the other two. Its chance of winning seats is unchanged at 66 in 100, so the table keeps its 4 seats, in the Netanyahu bloc.
The Reservists-New Economic Party won seats in two of the six. Its chance of winning seats fell from 44 in 100 to 41, so the table still gives it none.
The table has Yashar with 24 seats and Likud with 21. In the simulations the two are closer than that: Yashar wins more seats in 46.2%, Likud in 44.0%, and they tie in 9.8%.