Close again, a day later

The top of the forecast page now reads Netanyahu bloc and Opposition bloc are close, at about 54 and 53 seats, and Arab parties with 13. Yesterday it read Netanyahu bloc is slightly ahead with about 55 seats, Opposition bloc with 53, and Arab parties with 12.

The post of 5 October explains how the word is chosen: from the share of simulated elections in which each bloc ends up the larger of the two, counting a tie as half to each, with “slightly ahead” starting at 60%. Yesterday that figure crossed the line on a move of two points. Today it went back on a move of about three.

One poll

One poll is new since yesterday:

• Channel 12 (Midgam), fielded 5 October: 49 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, 54 for the opposition and 13 for the Arab parties, plus 4 for The Reservists-New Economic Party, which is in neither bloc

It matches Channel 12’s figures as they were reported.

It carries 6.5% of the weight in today’s average, more than any other poll: it is the newest, and Channel 12 counts at full weight. Added on its own at yesterday’s date, it takes the Netanyahu bloc’s figure from 61.8% to 58.8%. One more day gone by leaves it at 59.0%.

Today the Netanyahu bloc is the larger in 55.8% of simulations, the opposition bloc in 37.8%, and the two tie in 6.4%.

The seats

The table has 54 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, from 55, 53 for the opposition and 13 for the Arab parties, from 12. Likud goes from 23 to 22 and the Joint List from 7 to 8.

The Arab parties’ extra seat is the table’s rounding, not a gain of theirs. Their average across the simulations barely moved. The table shares the 120 seats among the blocs by those averages, and with the Netanyahu bloc’s a little lower, the last seat now goes to the Arab parties rather than to it.

Neither bloc is near a majority. The Netanyahu bloc reaches 61 seats in 3.2% of simulations, from 3.8%, and the opposition in 1.8%, as before. The opposition bloc and the Arab parties reach 61 between them in 83.8%, from 82.4%. That is arithmetic about seats and nothing more: those seats belong to lists that do not act as one, and no coalition is modelled here.

Two small lists near the line

Amcha Israel, Ofer Winter’s list, polled 1.5%, below the threshold. Midgam had given it 4 or 5 seats in each of its five earlier polls for Channel 12. Its chance of winning seats fell from 68 in 100 to 64. That is still better than even, so the table keeps its 4 seats, in the Netanyahu bloc. If it fell below even, those seats would go to the bloc’s other lists, and the bloc’s total would barely move.

The Reservists-New Economic Party won 4 seats in Channel 12’s poll, and seats in four of the six polls fielded since 1 October. Its chance of winning seats rose from 44 in 100 to 47, still below even, so the table gives it none. It is the list to watch: it is in neither bloc, so if it crosses, its seats would come out of all three blocs at once.

The rest

Yashar wins more seats than Likud in 48.6% of simulations, Likud more than Yashar in 42.3%, and they tie in 9.1%.