Method
The Reservists return to the table
The page still says the Netanyahu bloc is slightly ahead, now with about 52 seats, the opposition bloc with 51 and the Arab parties with 13, from 54, 52 and 14. Four of six polls of 20 to 22 October give The Reservists-New Economic Party 4 seats, and it is back above the half at which the table gives a list seats.
The top of the forecast page now reads Netanyahu bloc is slightly ahead with about 52 seats, Opposition bloc with 51, and Arab parties with 13. Yesterday it read 54, 52 and 14. The other 4 seats are back with The Reservists-New Economic Party, a list in neither bloc, which left the table yesterday after holding them from 14 October.
The word is the same. The Netanyahu bloc comes out the larger of the two in 65.8% of simulations, counting a tie as half to each, from 62.7%. “Slightly ahead” runs from 60% to 75%.
Six polls
Six polls are new since yesterday’s update, in the order they were fielded:
- Channel 16 (Maagar Mochot), 20 October: 50 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, 52 for the opposition and 14 for the Arab parties, plus 4 for The Reservists-New Economic Party
- Channel 14 (Next Data), 21 October: 62, 44 and 14
- Zman Yisrael (Yossi Tatika), 21 and 22 October: 51, 51 and 14, plus 4 for The Reservists-New Economic Party
- Channel 14 (Next Data), 22 October: 62, 44 and 14
- Israel Hayom (Kantar), published 22 October: 50, 52 and 14, plus 4 for The Reservists-New Economic Party
- Channel 16 (Maagar Mochot), published 22 October: 52, 50 and 14, plus 4 for The Reservists-New Economic Party
The last two were reported without fieldwork dates and are dated to the day they were published. Together the six carry 19.0% of the weight in today’s average; Channel 14’s count at half the weight of any other poll the same age. The first of Channel 14’s two is the poll this site said yesterday was missing from both sources.
The 2026 compilation also added thirteen older polls that it had found on a poll tracker and that no source here had carried. One of them is inside the 60-day window: DRI’s of 15 September, which carries 0.3% of the weight. There are now 97 polls in the window, from 91: seven added and one aged out.
One poll published since is not yet in either source the forecast reads: Maariv’s of this morning, 23 October, which gives the Netanyahu bloc 48, the opposition 54 and the Arab parties 14, plus 4 for The Reservists-New Economic Party. The law allows polls to be published until the end of today, and any that are will be in the next update.
The Reservists-New Economic Party
Four of the six polls give the list 4 seats; Channel 14’s two put it under the threshold. It now wins seats in 53 simulations in 100, from 49, and the table seats a list when it wins seats in at least half of them. Resampled at random, today’s simulations put it above that line every time, 400 times in 400, and give the three blocs the same 52, 51 and 13 every time. Leave out any one of the new polls and the list still wins seats in more than half the simulations. On yesterday’s polls alone, counted at today’s date, it would still be under the line and the table would still read 54, 52 and 14: the move is the new polls, not the calendar.
So the table again shares 116 seats among the three blocs, in proportion to the seats each is expected to win, and gives the list its 4. Against yesterday’s table, the Netanyahu bloc gives up 2 seats (Shas and United Torah Judaism), the opposition 1 (Yashar and Yisrael Beiteinu lose one each, and Together gains one) and the Arab parties 1 (the Joint List).
The rest
Neither bloc is near a majority. The Netanyahu bloc reaches 61 seats in 0.7% of simulations, from 0.8%, and the opposition in 0.2%, from 0.4%. The opposition bloc and the Arab parties reach 61 between them in 88.7%, from 87.5%. That is arithmetic about seats and nothing more: those seats belong to lists that do not act as one, and no coalition is modelled here.
Amcha Israel wins seats in 39 simulations in 100, from 40, so the table still gives it none, and its seats stay in the Netanyahu bloc. Both of Channel 16’s polls give it 4.
The table has Likud with 23 seats and Yashar with 22. The simulations do not separate them: Likud wins more seats in 44.0%, Yashar in 42.5%, and they tie in 13.5%.